Contents
By Karl Matchett
The familiar twin chase
For Real Madrid there’s nothing unusual about the run-in which starts here: they want to win the Champions League and the Spanish title, they are in the hunt for both and the push for silverware is utterly expected. What’s different is the manager, with Álvaro Arbeloa fewer than 20 games into his senior side managerial career, and the fact that they are not considered favourites for either competition as things stand. To catch Barcelona in LaLiga they’ll need an upturn in consistency, especially at home where they have suffered two defeats this term – but there’s a four-point gap and ten to play, so it’s far from insurmountable.
Simeone caught between ideals?
Atleti were the posterboys for rock solid defences under Diego Simeone during the prime era of Gabi, Koke, Diego Godin and Diego Costa. Koke remains, but the side is very different now, trying to be more expansive but not quite hitting the elite heights of some other teams in attack while also not being as tough to break down as their former selves. There’s little between Atleti and Real these days in defensive terms, with los rojiblancos seeing an xG against them of 30.5 to Real’s 30.8, conceding 25 to Real’s 24 and keeping 12 clean sheets to Real’s 11.
This really shows up as fixture where Atlético have to outperform themselves by a wide margin in the attacking third if they want to complete a league double over their local rivals this term – as they did earlier in the campaign by stomping Real 5-2.
Recent form
Real have won four in a row including two wins over Manchester City recently, while it’s nine wins from ten at home in all competitions. Atlético lost in midweek to Tottenham but won on aggregate, with six victories in their last eight all told – but only three wins in their last ten on the road.
Team news
No Ferland Mendy, Raúl Asencio or Rodrygo for Real Madrid, but Éder Militão is close to a return.
Neither side will have their first choice keeper, with Thibaut Courtois ruled out for Real and Jan Oblak a huge miss for Atlético. Matteo Ruggeri could miss out too.
Key player
It’s tough to second guess Simeone at times but Julián Alvarez must surely play – he’s key to any hopes for Atlético to shock their rivals. Relentless and talented but super creative too; Alvarez is LaLiga’s best forward for expected assists, creates 2.3 chances and 1.3 accurate crosses per 90 minutes. In Europe over the past year, he’s ahead of 99% of all forwards for chances created too – yet he last completed a league 90 minutes on 25 January. Simeone loves to sub him.
Prediction
Home form will be telling for Los Blancos in the title fight and this one has to start by being three points: Real Madrid 3-1 Atlético Madrid.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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