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By Karl Matchett
Spain, France and England are all shorter odds to triumph than Brazil, and plenty of people have reigning champions Argentina – and Portugal – ahead of them too. That lack of top-tier favouritism is unusual for the Seleção, but underlined by finishing fifth in Conmebol qualifying – one point off second, but also ten off top spot.
Ancelotti juggles, Neymar the circus
It can be argued that the manager’s biggest task is getting buy-in from the stars on hand – Raphinha and Vinícius Júnior, primarily – to perform for the team as well as showing individual class. Carlo Ancelotti is a master at managing egos and guiding underperformers, but even so this squad is below the quality levels of previous years.
There’s one more factor which will heavily influence Brazil’s success or failure: Neymar. Unfit heading into the tournament, he’s likely to be eased in over the groups before finding his role in the side…or not. And either outcome has knock-on effects for the squad dynamic, the media treatment, the fans’ belief and Brazil’s actual quality in the final third. Ancelotti believes he can offer something – but it needs to be far more than a star name if Brazil are to end their 24-year wait for a World Cup.
Atlas Lions’ big challenge
Morocco have already proved they are not a flash-in-the-pan – they’ve lost precisely one game of any kind since the end of the delayed 2023 Afcon. The caveat there is that it would have been two, had CAF not overturned last year’s chaotic Afcon final from a Senegal win to a Morocco one – but even so, their recent international record reads fourth place at a World Cup, Round of 16 at one Afcon and reached the final at the next. That’s impressive, consistent progression in a way that previous African nations have not managed to sustain after impacting on the global stage. Morocco set a record at the last World Cup by reaching the semis – it’s a different kind of pressure to repeat the trick. One unknown remains: Mohamed Ouahbi took over as boss in March, having won the U20 World Cup last year.
Recent form
Brazil saw off Panama with ease at the end of May and beat Egypt in their final warm-up, while Morocco beat Madagascar and drew with Norway.
Team news
Brazil saw Wesley go off against Egypt and he’s out the squad, while Neymar only returned to training this week. Morocco lost key winger Abde Ezzalzouli against Norway, a massive blow, while Nayef Aguerd also failed to recover from an injury – both will miss the finals entirely.
Key player
For Brazil’s attack to shine, the midfield pair must function in both directions. Over the past year Bruno Guimarães ranks 86% for touches, 91% for chances created and 48% by defensive actions among top European-based midfielders – he’ll have to excel to set a platform for those ahead, and do an awful lot of running for his central partner.
Prediction
With easier games ahead in Group C, it’s possible neither side will go all-out for three points – an entertaining draw is in store as a result: Brazil 2-2 Morocco.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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