By Alex Roberts
Legia Warszawa, Poland’s most successful club with 15 titles under their best, are bang in trouble. Now, we’re not talking ‘Tottenham trouble’, Legia aren’t in the relegation zone, but they’re currently only three points above the bottom three.
Looking at the underlying numbers, they’re not great, but they’re not relegation fight bad. Legia tend to dominate games, averaging 53.7% of possession per 90 minutes, they’ve kept the fourth most clean sheets (8), and have the seventh highest xG (41.6).
According to Polish football expert Michał Zachodny, though, it’s not that black and white. “The most important thing is that Legia’s problems are not strictly tactical. This might be one of the issues, like defending at set pieces and crosses, but in general I would say that what’s happened behind the scenes during the season has destabilised the squad on the pitch.”
“To keep it brief: Edward Iordanescu was appointed [as coach] very late in the summer, so future planning and transfers were put on hold. Until at the end of the transfer window Legia made changes which he didn’t like, causing him almost to walk out to show how unhappy he was.
“Then Legia were finally forced to let him go, yet they failed to sign a permanent replacement for almost two months, leaving an unsettled team in the hands of inexperienced interim coach, Iñaki Astiz, who didn’t even want the job.
“He had one of the smallest staff to help him, while they were playing twice a week. Hence they recorded the longest streak without a win in Legia’s history. It wasn’t until the winter when Legia appointed the long-sought after Marek Papszun as a permanent manager.
“He brought a clear plan, structure and know-how, but was not supported with new signings, bar two players – a back-up goalkeeper and an inexperienced striker from the lower Leagues. Given how many injuries and the level of problems the team had when he took over, he is doing quite well.”
Constantly chopping and changing is very rarely a good thing in football. Legia’s big issues stem from the owner, Dariusz Mioduski. The businessman took over in 2017, and since then, the club have had 11 different managers, although Aleksandar Vuković has been appointed twice.
Decisions have felt rushed, too emotional for a club that should be qualifying for European football at a minimum. Coaches have been given limited time, squads were reshaped repeatedly, and a long-term identity has never truly developed.
Zachodny said in no uncertain terms that the responsibility for Legia’s troubles belongs to Mioduski. “Frankly, all of it. Since the sacking of Jacek Magiera [in 2017], there has been constant change and chaos.
“To be precise, Legia found themselves in a relegation battle again, just a couple of years after Mioduski’s decisions almost brought them down, only for another interim coach, albeit one with more experience than Astiz, to save them.
“Legia are constantly changing philosophies, changing sporting directors and structures, developing only theoretically, growing financially, yet without a significant rise in quality on the pitch.
“They are still able to sell their youth products, but this almost happens by accident, as it seems there is no plan to promote them. And if you look at the managers they’ve signed, they almost seem like twist after twist, with no sense of a greater plan.
“As the league itself grows, other teams have become more competitive and there is a need to use your wealth to your advantage. Legia are doing almost the opposite. As if there was an internal willingness to keep the club in chaos.”
Legia fans aren’t known to be cool, calm, and collected. They have some of the most intense ultras in Europe, in 2023, they were banned from selling away tickets for five European games after clashes at Aston Villa.
Over the past few years, they’ve seen their club develop into a selling one. Last summer they lost promising youngsters Maxi Oyedele and Jan Ziółkowski, and previously the likes of Ernest Muçi, Maik Nawrocki, and Bartosz Slisz.
Some may say that this is the nature of the beast. Once a club from one of Europe’s bigger leagues comes calling, it would be hard for Legia to keep their stars. The problem is that the club need to make sure they’re replaced.
Zachodny confirms the fans are far from happy. “They’re quite furious at the club’s transfer policy, seeing these sales as a means to balance the books, not use the money to strengthen the squad.
“There were protests last summer because of the lack of transfer activity, only for them to stop when Mileta Rajović was signed for a record-breaking fee [€3m] and he has proved to be one of the worst signings of the season.
“Funnily enough, Legia have the highest wage bill in the league, but the quality simply isn’t there.
“So, even though Legia signed a couple of players for the final stages of the season, almost none of them are now a vital part of the starting line-up – bar one, which, ironically, is Rajović. And the only reason he’s playing is because Papszun doesn’t have any other option as a striker.”
Despite all of their troubles domestically, Legia have had some good moments on the continent. Last season, they faced eventual winners Chelsea in the Europa Conference League quarter finals, beating them 2-1 in the second leg.
This season wasn’t quite as successful as they bowed out after the league phase, but a 2-1 win over Shakhtar Donetsk should be celebrated. Now, with qualification for any European competition looking unlikely, Legia will have to take a major financial hit on the chin.
According to the club, in 2024/2025, Legia had a 13% decline in revenue to roughly €54.3 million. Now, they maintain they’re still in a healthy financial position but missing out on at least the Conference League will add up.
For reaching the league phase, Legia would earn €3.17 million, and once it kicks off, they would get €400,000 per win, €133,000 per draw, an extra €400,000 for a top eight finish, or €200,000 for a place in the play-offs. That isn’t an insignificant amount of money.
A lack of European football would be a big issue, and Zachodny agrees. “It would be a big problem, one that would hurt their business in the summer. Legia is a club that includes reaching the league stages of European competitions in their budget plans.
“Without it, they might be forced to sell several players, refrain from renewing contracts with those who are at the end of their current deals (and there are a lot of them in the starting line up). All in all, it will definitely make Papszun’s job all the more difficult.”
Ultimately, barring a truly catastrophic last few games, Legia will probably be fine. They can even still finish in those European spots due to the condensed nature of the league standings – even if a LOT of things would need to go their way. A midtable finish is the most likely outcome.
Zachodny reckons Legia will stay up too, but the warning signs are there, and if things don’t change, it could get worse. “I don’t think they’ll go down. What Papszun has done already is to make them tough to beat.
“It’s not impossible, but they’re better organised, they are leaking goals only at defensive set pieces, while steadily creating more chances and playing with more intensity. Relegation for Legia would be the greatest shock Polish football has ever seen.
“And yet it feels like that, under the current presidency, it’s a disaster just waiting to happen.”
(Images from IMAGO)
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